Real Sociedad vs Atlético de Madrid: predictions, H2H and market odds

Real Sociedad have won 2, drawn 4 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.3 goals scored and 1.7 conceded (1.35 expected goals for, 2.00 against). Atlético de Madrid have won 6, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.6 goals scored and 1.5 conceded (1.20 expected goals for, 1.51 against).

Both teams scored in 70% of Real Sociedad's recent matches and 50% of Atlético de Madrid's; 50% and 60% went over 2.5 goals. In their last 10 meetings Real Sociedad won 0, Atlético de Madrid won 6 and 4 ended level. The most recent, on 7 Mar 2026, finished Atlético de Madrid 3–2 Real Sociedad.

With the bookmaker's margin removed, the market puts both teams to score at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 58%. Kepler's model projects 1.28–1.51 in expected goals, with 1–1 the most likely score, and puts both teams to score at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.