Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Club: predictions, H2H and market odds

Rayo Vallecano have won 4, drawn 3 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.6 goals scored and 1.8 conceded (1.45 expected goals for, 1.59 against). Athletic Club have won 2, drawn 3 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.0 goals scored and 1.4 conceded (1.32 expected goals for, 1.40 against).

Both teams scored in 90% of Rayo Vallecano's recent matches and 40% of Athletic Club's; 60% and 30% went over 2.5 goals. In their last 10 meetings Rayo Vallecano won 1, Athletic Club won 7 and 2 ended level. The most recent, on 28 Feb 2026, finished Rayo Vallecano 1–1 Athletic Club.

With the bookmaker's margin removed, the market puts both teams to score at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 47%. Kepler's model projects 1.09–1.04 in expected goals, with 1–1 the most likely score, and puts both teams to score at 56%.