Paris Saint Germain vs Olympique Lyonnais: predictions, H2H and market odds

Paris Saint Germain have won 6, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.8 goals scored and 1.1 conceded (1.64 expected goals for, 1.86 against). Olympique Lyonnais have won 5, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.8 goals scored and 1.3 conceded (1.51 expected goals for, 1.24 against).

Both teams scored in 70% of Paris Saint Germain's recent matches and 60% of Olympique Lyonnais's; 70% and 70% went over 2.5 goals. Both sides have been playing open matches. In their last 10 meetings Paris Saint Germain won 7, Olympique Lyonnais won 2 and 1 ended level. The most recent, on 19 Apr 2026, finished Paris Saint Germain 1–2 Olympique Lyonnais.

With the bookmaker's margin removed, the market puts both teams to score at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 69%. Kepler's model projects 2.17–1.10 in expected goals, with 2–1 the most likely score, and puts both teams to score at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.