Palmeiras vs Bahia: predictions, H2H and market odds

Palmeiras have won 4, drawn 4 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.7 goals scored and 0.8 conceded (1.38 expected goals for, 1.18 against). Bahia have won 4, drawn 5 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.6 goals scored and 1.2 conceded (1.42 expected goals for, 1.36 against).

Both teams scored in 50% of Palmeiras's recent matches and 70% of Bahia's; 50% and 50% went over 2.5 goals. In their last 7 meetings Palmeiras won 4, Bahia won 3 and 0 ended level. The most recent, on 5 Apr 2026, finished Bahia 1–2 Palmeiras.

With the bookmaker's margin removed, the market puts both teams to score at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 60%. Kepler's model projects 1.96–0.77 in expected goals, with 1–0 the most likely score, and puts both teams to score at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.