Palermo vs Calcio Padova: predictions, H2H and market odds

Palermo have won 6, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.6 goals scored and 1.2 conceded (1.50 expected goals for, 1.45 against). Calcio Padova have won 6, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.1 goals scored and 1.0 conceded (1.36 expected goals for, 1.60 against).

Both teams scored in 50% of Palermo's recent matches and 30% of Calcio Padova's; 40% and 20% went over 2.5 goals. Both sides have been playing tight matches. In their last 2 meetings Palermo won 2, Calcio Padova won 0 and 0 ended level. The most recent, on 21 Mar 2026, finished Calcio Padova 0–1 Palermo.

With the bookmaker's margin removed, the market puts both teams to score at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 56%. Kepler's model projects 1.66–0.74 in expected goals, with 1–0 the most likely score, and puts both teams to score at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 56%.