Novorizontino vs Avaí: predictions, H2H and market odds

Novorizontino have won 5, drawn 1 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.7 goals scored and 0.8 conceded (1.47 expected goals for, 0.66 against). Avaí have won 5, drawn 1 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.2 goals scored and 1.0 conceded (1.08 expected goals for, 1.04 against).

Both teams scored in 40% of Novorizontino's recent matches and 50% of Avaí's; 60% and 40% went over 2.5 goals. In their last 7 meetings Novorizontino won 3, Avaí won 1 and 3 ended level. The most recent, on 3 May 2026, finished Avaí 3–3 Novorizontino.

With the bookmaker's margin removed, the market puts both teams to score at 43% and over 2.5 goals at 48%. Kepler's model projects 1.55–0.72 in expected goals, with 1–0 the most likely score, and puts both teams to score at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 50%.