Newcastle United vs AFC Bournemouth: predictions, H2H and market odds

Newcastle United have won 3, drawn 2 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.4 goals scored and 1.4 conceded (1.23 expected goals for, 1.56 against). AFC Bournemouth have won 4, drawn 5 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.6 goals scored and 1.1 conceded (1.16 expected goals for, 1.22 against).

Both teams scored in 70% of Newcastle United's recent matches and 80% of AFC Bournemouth's; 60% and 60% went over 2.5 goals. Both sides have been playing open matches. In their last 8 meetings Newcastle United won 0, AFC Bournemouth won 3 and 5 ended level. The most recent, on 18 Apr 2026, finished Newcastle United 1–2 AFC Bournemouth.

With the bookmaker's margin removed, the market puts both teams to score at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 60%. Kepler's model projects 1.78–1.28 in expected goals, with 1–1 the most likely score, and puts both teams to score at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.