Manchester United vs Manchester City: predictions, H2H and market odds

Manchester United have won 6, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, averaging 2.0 goals scored and 1.3 conceded (1.68 expected goals for, 1.32 against). Manchester City have won 7, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches, averaging 2.1 goals scored and 0.9 conceded (1.60 expected goals for, 1.09 against).

Both teams scored in 60% of Manchester United's recent matches and 60% of Manchester City's; 70% and 70% went over 2.5 goals. Both sides have been playing open matches. In their last 10 meetings Manchester United won 3, Manchester City won 6 and 1 ended level. The most recent, on 17 Jan 2026, finished Manchester United 2–0 Manchester City.

With the bookmaker's margin removed, the market puts both teams to score at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 62%. Kepler's model projects 1.18–1.86 in expected goals, with 1–1 the most likely score, and puts both teams to score at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 64%.