Manchester City vs Sunderland: predictions, H2H and market odds

Manchester City have won 7, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches, averaging 2.0 goals scored and 0.8 conceded (1.52 expected goals for, 1.05 against). Sunderland have won 3, drawn 3 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.2 goals scored and 1.7 conceded (1.31 expected goals for, 1.26 against).

Both teams scored in 50% of Manchester City's recent matches and 60% of Sunderland's; 60% and 50% went over 2.5 goals. In their last 2 meetings Manchester City won 1, Sunderland won 0 and 1 ended level. The most recent, on 1 Jan 2026, finished Sunderland 0–0 Manchester City.

With the bookmaker's margin removed, the market puts both teams to score at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 62%. Kepler's model projects 1.95–0.66 in expected goals, with 1–0 the most likely score, and puts both teams to score at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 61%.