Leganés vs Castellón: predictions, H2H and market odds

Leganés have won 4, drawn 3 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, averaging 0.8 goals scored and 1.0 conceded (1.46 expected goals for, 1.16 against). Castellón have won 7, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.8 goals scored and 0.7 conceded (1.73 expected goals for, 1.03 against).

Both teams scored in 30% of Leganés's recent matches and 50% of Castellón's; 30% and 50% went over 2.5 goals. In their last 2 meetings Leganés won 0, Castellón won 2 and 0 ended level. The most recent, on 16 Jan 2026, finished Castellón 2–0 Leganés.

With the bookmaker's margin removed, the market puts both teams to score at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 51%. Kepler's model projects 1.16–1.26 in expected goals, with 1–1 the most likely score, and puts both teams to score at 51%.