Leeds United vs Newcastle United: predictions, H2H and market odds

Leeds United have won 5, drawn 4 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.5 goals scored and 1.0 conceded (1.38 expected goals for, 1.58 against). Newcastle United have won 3, drawn 3 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.5 goals scored and 1.4 conceded (1.23 expected goals for, 1.49 against).

Both teams scored in 60% of Leeds United's recent matches and 70% of Newcastle United's; 50% and 60% went over 2.5 goals. In their last 6 meetings Leeds United won 0, Newcastle United won 2 and 4 ended level. The most recent, on 7 Jan 2026, finished Newcastle United 4–3 Leeds United.

With the bookmaker's margin removed, the market puts both teams to score at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 56%. Kepler's model projects 1.35–1.56 in expected goals, with 1–1 the most likely score, and puts both teams to score at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.