Lech Poznań vs Korona Kielce: predictions, H2H and market odds

Lech Poznań have won 7, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches, averaging 2.3 goals scored and 1.0 conceded (1.52 expected goals for, 1.11 against). Korona Kielce have won 4, drawn 3 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.2 goals scored and 1.2 conceded (1.42 expected goals for, 1.11 against).

Both teams scored in 70% of Lech Poznań's recent matches and 60% of Korona Kielce's; 80% and 30% went over 2.5 goals. In their last 8 meetings Lech Poznań won 6, Korona Kielce won 1 and 1 ended level. The most recent, on 22 Feb 2026, finished Korona Kielce 1–2 Lech Poznań.

With the bookmaker's margin removed, the market puts both teams to score at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 60%. Kepler's model projects 1.89–0.83 in expected goals, with 1–0 the most likely score, and puts both teams to score at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 59%.