Jagiellonia Białystok vs Legia Warszawa: predictions, H2H and market odds

Jagiellonia Białystok have won 6, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.6 goals scored and 1.2 conceded (1.55 expected goals for, 1.32 against). Legia Warszawa have won 6, drawn 4 and lost 0 of their last 10 matches, averaging 2.2 goals scored and 0.8 conceded (1.69 expected goals for, 1.28 against).

Both teams scored in 50% of Jagiellonia Białystok's recent matches and 70% of Legia Warszawa's; 50% and 50% went over 2.5 goals. In their last 10 meetings Jagiellonia Białystok won 2, Legia Warszawa won 3 and 5 ended level. The most recent, on 1 Mar 2026, finished Jagiellonia Białystok 2–2 Legia Warszawa.

With the bookmaker's margin removed, the market puts both teams to score at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 55%. Kepler's model projects 1.58–1.23 in expected goals, with 1–1 the most likely score, and puts both teams to score at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 59%.