FC Barcelona vs Real Madrid: predictions, H2H and market odds

FC Barcelona have won 9, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches, averaging 4.0 goals scored and 1.2 conceded (2.36 expected goals for, 1.27 against). Real Madrid have won 8, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, averaging 2.7 goals scored and 1.1 conceded (2.36 expected goals for, 1.36 against).

Both teams scored in 60% of FC Barcelona's recent matches and 70% of Real Madrid's; 90% and 80% went over 2.5 goals. Both sides have been playing open matches. In their last 10 meetings FC Barcelona won 5, Real Madrid won 5 and 0 ended level. The most recent, on 10 May 2026, finished FC Barcelona 2–0 Real Madrid.

With the bookmaker's margin removed, the market puts both teams to score at 72% and over 2.5 goals at 81%. Kepler's model projects 2.11–1.35 in expected goals, with 2–1 the most likely score, and puts both teams to score at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 74%.