Everton vs Manchester United: predictions, H2H and market odds

Everton have won 2, drawn 4 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.6 goals scored and 1.6 conceded (1.71 expected goals for, 1.29 against). Manchester United have won 6, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, averaging 2.0 goals scored and 1.3 conceded (1.71 expected goals for, 1.24 against).

Both teams scored in 70% of Everton's recent matches and 60% of Manchester United's; 70% and 70% went over 2.5 goals. Both sides have been playing open matches. In their last 10 meetings Everton won 2, Manchester United won 6 and 2 ended level. The most recent, on 23 Feb 2026, finished Everton 0–1 Manchester United.

With the bookmaker's margin removed, the market puts both teams to score at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 57%. Kepler's model projects 1.23–1.29 in expected goals, with 1–1 the most likely score, and puts both teams to score at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.