Elche vs Real Sociedad: predictions, H2H and market odds

Elche have won 3, drawn 3 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.3 goals scored and 1.9 conceded (1.23 expected goals for, 1.54 against). Real Sociedad have won 1, drawn 5 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.3 goals scored and 1.8 conceded (1.49 expected goals for, 1.85 against).

Both teams scored in 80% of Elche's recent matches and 70% of Real Sociedad's; 60% and 50% went over 2.5 goals. In their last 6 meetings Elche won 0, Real Sociedad won 5 and 1 ended level. The most recent, on 7 Feb 2026, finished Real Sociedad 3–1 Elche.

With the bookmaker's margin removed, the market puts both teams to score at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 54%. Kepler's model projects 1.46–1.31 in expected goals, with 1–1 the most likely score, and puts both teams to score at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.