Derby County vs Stoke City: predictions, H2H and market odds

Derby County have won 1, drawn 3 and lost 6 of their last 10 matches, averaging 0.9 goals scored and 1.9 conceded (1.25 expected goals for, 1.92 against). Stoke City have won 5, drawn 1 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.7 goals scored and 1.6 conceded (1.20 expected goals for, 1.56 against).

Both teams scored in 60% of Derby County's recent matches and 80% of Stoke City's; 60% and 80% went over 2.5 goals. Both sides have been playing open matches. In their last 6 meetings Derby County won 3, Stoke City won 2 and 1 ended level. The most recent, on 6 Apr 2026, finished Derby County 2–0 Stoke City.

With the bookmaker's margin removed, the market puts both teams to score at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.