Deportivo Alavés vs Valencia: predictions, H2H and market odds

Deportivo Alavés have won 5, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.7 goals scored and 1.2 conceded (1.59 expected goals for, 1.19 against). Valencia have won 3, drawn 2 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.0 goals scored and 1.7 conceded (1.03 expected goals for, 1.33 against).

Both teams scored in 60% of Deportivo Alavés's recent matches and 40% of Valencia's; 50% and 40% went over 2.5 goals. In their last 8 meetings Deportivo Alavés won 4, Valencia won 2 and 2 ended level. The most recent, on 8 Mar 2026, finished Valencia 3–2 Deportivo Alavés.

With the bookmaker's margin removed, the market puts both teams to score at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 45%. Kepler's model projects 1.41–0.95 in expected goals, with 1–0 the most likely score, and puts both teams to score at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.