Deportivo Alavés vs Atlético de Madrid: predictions, H2H and market odds

Deportivo Alavés have won 5, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.4 goals scored and 0.8 conceded (1.50 expected goals for, 1.12 against). Atlético de Madrid have won 7, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, averaging 2.0 goals scored and 1.3 conceded (1.72 expected goals for, 1.51 against).

Both teams scored in 40% of Deportivo Alavés's recent matches and 50% of Atlético de Madrid's; 40% and 80% went over 2.5 goals. In their last 8 meetings Deportivo Alavés won 2, Atlético de Madrid won 4 and 2 ended level. The most recent, on 18 Jan 2026, finished Atlético de Madrid 1–0 Deportivo Alavés.

With the bookmaker's margin removed, the market puts both teams to score at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 51%. Kepler's model projects 1.04–1.49 in expected goals, with 1–1 the most likely score, and puts both teams to score at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.