Chelsea vs AFC Bournemouth: predictions, H2H and market odds

Chelsea have won 3, drawn 2 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.5 goals scored and 2.2 conceded (1.21 expected goals for, 1.90 against). AFC Bournemouth have won 2, drawn 6 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.4 goals scored and 1.2 conceded (1.43 expected goals for, 1.19 against).

Both teams scored in 80% of Chelsea's recent matches and 70% of AFC Bournemouth's; 90% and 50% went over 2.5 goals. In their last 8 meetings Chelsea won 4, AFC Bournemouth won 0 and 4 ended level. The most recent, on 30 Dec 2025, finished Chelsea 2–2 AFC Bournemouth.

With the bookmaker's margin removed, the market puts both teams to score at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 59%. Kepler's model projects 1.75–1.33 in expected goals, with 1–1 the most likely score, and puts both teams to score at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.