Celta de Vigo vs Deportivo Alavés: predictions, H2H and market odds

Celta de Vigo have won 2, drawn 6 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.0 goals scored and 0.7 conceded (1.14 expected goals for, 1.23 against). Deportivo Alavés have won 4, drawn 2 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.4 goals scored and 1.0 conceded (1.52 expected goals for, 1.20 against).

Both teams scored in 40% of Celta de Vigo's recent matches and 50% of Deportivo Alavés's; 20% and 50% went over 2.5 goals. In their last 8 meetings Celta de Vigo won 4, Deportivo Alavés won 2 and 2 ended level. The most recent, on 22 Mar 2026, finished Celta de Vigo 3–4 Deportivo Alavés.

With the bookmaker's margin removed, the market puts both teams to score at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 37%. Kepler's model projects 1.49–0.94 in expected goals, with 1–0 the most likely score, and puts both teams to score at 53%.