Ceará vs Sport Recife: predictions, H2H and market odds

Ceará have won 3, drawn 2 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.0 goals scored and 1.4 conceded (1.15 expected goals for, 1.61 against). Sport Recife have won 3, drawn 4 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.5 goals scored and 1.3 conceded (1.26 expected goals for, 1.08 against).

Both teams scored in 40% of Ceará's recent matches and 70% of Sport Recife's; 30% and 60% went over 2.5 goals. In their last 7 meetings Ceará won 2, Sport Recife won 3 and 2 ended level. The most recent, on 3 May 2026, finished Sport Recife 2–0 Ceará.

With the bookmaker's margin removed, the market puts both teams to score at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 40%. Kepler's model projects 1.18–1.25 in expected goals, with 1–1 the most likely score, and puts both teams to score at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.