Cardiff City vs Stoke City: predictions, H2H and market odds

Cardiff City have won 3, drawn 4 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, averaging 2.0 goals scored and 1.7 conceded (1.76 expected goals for, 1.89 against). Stoke City have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 7 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.1 goals scored and 2.0 conceded (1.02 expected goals for, 1.46 against).

Both teams scored in 80% of Cardiff City's recent matches and 60% of Stoke City's; 60% and 60% went over 2.5 goals. Both sides have been playing open matches. In their last 8 meetings Cardiff City won 2, Stoke City won 1 and 5 ended level. The most recent, on 12 Apr 2025, finished Cardiff City 0–1 Stoke City.

With the bookmaker's margin removed, the market puts both teams to score at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 59%. Kepler's model projects 1.20–1.21 in expected goals, with 1–1 the most likely score, and puts both teams to score at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.