Calcio Padova vs Carrarese: predictions, H2H and market odds

Calcio Padova have won 6, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.2 goals scored and 1.0 conceded (1.38 expected goals for, 1.55 against). Carrarese have won 0, drawn 3 and lost 7 of their last 10 matches, averaging 0.5 goals scored and 1.5 conceded (0.90 expected goals for, 1.02 against).

Both teams scored in 40% of Calcio Padova's recent matches and 40% of Carrarese's; 30% and 40% went over 2.5 goals. Both sides have been playing tight matches. In their last 2 meetings Calcio Padova won 1, Carrarese won 0 and 1 ended level. The most recent, on 10 Feb 2026, finished Calcio Padova 1–0 Carrarese.

With the bookmaker's margin removed, the market puts both teams to score at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 50%. Kepler's model projects 1.18–0.92 in expected goals, with 1–0 the most likely score, and puts both teams to score at 54%.