Calcio Padova vs Ascoli: predictions, H2H and market odds

Calcio Padova have won 5, drawn 1 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.0 goals scored and 1.1 conceded (1.31 expected goals for, 1.56 against). Ascoli have won 4, drawn 5 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches, averaging 0.9 goals scored and 0.6 conceded (1.09 expected goals for, 1.10 against).

Both teams scored in 30% of Calcio Padova's recent matches and 40% of Ascoli's; 20% and 30% went over 2.5 goals. Both sides have been playing tight matches. The two have no previous meeting in our data.

With the bookmaker's margin removed, the market puts both teams to score at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 46%. Kepler's model projects 0.95–0.91 in expected goals, with 0–0 the most likely score, and puts both teams to score at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 47%.