Burnley vs Bristol City: predictions, H2H and market odds

Burnley have won 0, drawn 4 and lost 6 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.0 goals scored and 2.2 conceded (1.14 expected goals for, 1.51 against). Bristol City have won 4, drawn 3 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.5 goals scored and 1.4 conceded (1.46 expected goals for, 1.19 against).

Both teams scored in 80% of Burnley's recent matches and 60% of Bristol City's; 60% and 60% went over 2.5 goals. Both sides have been playing open matches. In their last 4 meetings Burnley won 4, Bristol City won 0 and 0 ended level. The most recent, on 29 Mar 2025, finished Burnley 1–0 Bristol City.

With the bookmaker's margin removed, the market puts both teams to score at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 51%. Kepler's model projects 1.70–0.67 in expected goals, with 1–0 the most likely score, and puts both teams to score at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.