Brighton & Hove Albion vs Arsenal: predictions, H2H and market odds

Brighton & Hove Albion have won 4, drawn 2 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, averaging 2.2 goals scored and 1.4 conceded (1.70 expected goals for, 1.46 against). Arsenal have won 9, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.7 goals scored and 0.4 conceded (1.76 expected goals for, 0.93 against).

Both teams scored in 40% of Brighton & Hove Albion's recent matches and 30% of Arsenal's; 80% and 50% went over 2.5 goals. In their last 10 meetings Brighton & Hove Albion won 2, Arsenal won 5 and 3 ended level. The most recent, on 4 Mar 2026, finished Brighton & Hove Albion 0–1 Arsenal.

With the bookmaker's margin removed, the market puts both teams to score at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 54%. Kepler's model projects 0.96–1.68 in expected goals, with 0–1 the most likely score, and puts both teams to score at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.