Atlético de Madrid vs Real Madrid: predictions, H2H and market odds

Atlético de Madrid have won 6, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.8 goals scored and 1.3 conceded (1.47 expected goals for, 1.49 against). Real Madrid have won 8, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, averaging 2.4 goals scored and 1.0 conceded (2.18 expected goals for, 1.22 against).

Both teams scored in 40% of Atlético de Madrid's recent matches and 50% of Real Madrid's; 70% and 60% went over 2.5 goals. Both sides have been playing open matches. In their last 10 meetings Atlético de Madrid won 3, Real Madrid won 3 and 4 ended level. The most recent, on 22 Mar 2026, finished Real Madrid 3–2 Atlético de Madrid.

With the bookmaker's margin removed, the market puts both teams to score at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 62%. Kepler's model projects 1.45–1.46 in expected goals, with 1–1 the most likely score, and puts both teams to score at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.