Atlético de Madrid vs Osasuna: predictions, H2H and market odds

Atlético de Madrid have won 6, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.6 goals scored and 1.3 conceded (1.21 expected goals for, 1.46 against). Osasuna have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 7 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.0 goals scored and 1.8 conceded (1.44 expected goals for, 1.23 against).

Both teams scored in 40% of Atlético de Madrid's recent matches and 60% of Osasuna's; 60% and 60% went over 2.5 goals. Both sides have been playing open matches. In their last 10 meetings Atlético de Madrid won 8, Osasuna won 2 and 0 ended level. The most recent, on 12 May 2026, finished Osasuna 1–2 Atlético de Madrid.

With the bookmaker's margin removed, the market puts both teams to score at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 53%. Kepler's model projects 2.05–0.82 in expected goals, with 2–0 the most likely score, and puts both teams to score at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.