Athletic Club vs Elche: predictions, H2H and market odds

Athletic Club have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 6 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.5 goals scored and 1.8 conceded (1.37 expected goals for, 1.53 against). Elche have won 2, drawn 3 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.2 goals scored and 2.0 conceded (1.47 expected goals for, 1.59 against).

Both teams scored in 50% of Athletic Club's recent matches and 80% of Elche's; 50% and 60% went over 2.5 goals. In their last 6 meetings Athletic Club won 3, Elche won 1 and 2 ended level. The most recent, on 20 Feb 2026, finished Athletic Club 2–1 Elche.

With the bookmaker's margin removed, the market puts both teams to score at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 57%. Kepler's model projects 1.81–0.94 in expected goals, with 1–0 the most likely score, and puts both teams to score at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.