Athletic Club vs Deportivo Alavés: predictions, H2H and market odds

Athletic Club have won 3, drawn 2 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.4 goals scored and 1.6 conceded (1.33 expected goals for, 1.46 against). Deportivo Alavés have won 5, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.5 goals scored and 0.9 conceded (1.58 expected goals for, 1.17 against).

Both teams scored in 50% of Athletic Club's recent matches and 50% of Deportivo Alavés's; 40% and 40% went over 2.5 goals. Both sides have been playing tight matches. In their last 8 meetings Athletic Club won 5, Deportivo Alavés won 1 and 2 ended level. The most recent, on 2 May 2026, finished Deportivo Alavés 2–4 Athletic Club.

With the bookmaker's margin removed, the market puts both teams to score at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 50%. Kepler's model projects 1.47–0.88 in expected goals, with 1–0 the most likely score, and puts both teams to score at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 50%.