Athletic Club vs Atlético de Madrid: predictions, H2H and market odds

Athletic Club have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 6 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.3 goals scored and 1.8 conceded (1.34 expected goals for, 1.52 against). Atlético de Madrid have won 6, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.8 goals scored and 1.5 conceded (1.18 expected goals for, 1.50 against).

Both teams scored in 50% of Athletic Club's recent matches and 60% of Atlético de Madrid's; 40% and 60% went over 2.5 goals. In their last 10 meetings Athletic Club won 3, Atlético de Madrid won 6 and 1 ended level. The most recent, on 25 Apr 2026, finished Atlético de Madrid 3–2 Athletic Club.

With the bookmaker's margin removed, the market puts both teams to score at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 50%. Kepler's model projects 1.19–1.34 in expected goals, with 1–1 the most likely score, and puts both teams to score at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.