Kepler

FixturesLiga Portugal · Portugal · Round 8

Kick-off: Sun, 11 Oct 2026 · 19:30 UTCStadium: Estádio Municipal de Arouca, Arouca

Arouca

1 – 0Full time

Estrela Amadora

Arouca vs Estrela Amadora head to head

In their last 6 meetings Arouca won 3, Estrela Amadora won 2 and 1 ended level. The most recent, on 19 Apr 2026, finished Arouca 1–0 Estrela Amadora.

3Wins

1Draws

2Wins

19 Apr 2026AroucaEstrela Amadora101-0
7 Dec 2025Estrela AmadoraArouca313-1
19 Apr 2025AroucaEstrela Amadora101-0
9 Dec 2024Estrela AmadoraArouca212-1
5 May 2024AroucaEstrela Amadora000-0
28 Dec 2023Estrela AmadoraArouca141-4

Betting involves risk. Past results do not guarantee future ones. 18+.

Arouca vs Estrela Amadora predicted score

Expected goals

1.79–1.17

Most likely score

1–1

Market	Model	Market
Both teams to score · Yes	59%	58%
Over 2.5	56%	51%

Kepler's model for a match without a signal. It publishes a pick only when its numbers and the market's disagree by enough.

Arouca vs Estrela Amadora odds

Side	Best price		Fair probability
Both teams to score
Yes	1.67	Marathonbet	58.4%
No	2.25	Betfair	41.6%
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5	1.90	Pinnacle	51.2%
Under 2.5	1.99	Pinnacle	48.8%

odds updated 19:05 UTC · 7 bookmakers tracked

Fair probability: one bookmaker's two prices with its margin removed - Pinnacle where it prices the market, otherwise an exchange.

What is a fair probability? →

No signal was published for this match

Before kickoff the model's price and the market's did not disagree by enough to publish. Signals for upcoming matches reach subscribers the moment they open.

What does “no signal” mean on a match page? →

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Referee

Luís Carlos Mateus Filipe

Portugal

Yellow cards: 6.0 per match
Red cards: 0.0 per match
Fouls: 22.7 per match
Penalties: 0.67 per match

Matches this season: 3

Kepler in Liga Portugal

1 settled picks · ROI +83.0% · average CLV +2.15%

Full track record →