Arouca vs Estrela Amadora: predictions, H2H and market odds

Arouca have won 5, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.8 goals scored and 1.1 conceded (1.30 expected goals for, 1.33 against). Estrela Amadora have won 2, drawn 6 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.8 goals scored and 1.9 conceded (1.35 expected goals for, 1.37 against).

Both teams scored in 60% of Arouca's recent matches and 80% of Estrela Amadora's; 70% and 80% went over 2.5 goals. Both sides have been playing open matches. In their last 6 meetings Arouca won 3, Estrela Amadora won 2 and 1 ended level. The most recent, on 19 Apr 2026, finished Arouca 1–0 Estrela Amadora.

With the bookmaker's margin removed, the market puts both teams to score at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 51%. Kepler's model projects 1.79–1.17 in expected goals, with 1–1 the most likely score, and puts both teams to score at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 56%.