Almería vs Leganés: predictions, H2H and market odds

Almería have won 6, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.4 goals scored and 0.7 conceded (1.36 expected goals for, 1.00 against). Leganés have won 4, drawn 2 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, averaging 0.7 goals scored and 1.4 conceded (1.38 expected goals for, 1.40 against).

Both teams scored in 30% of Almería's recent matches and 20% of Leganés's; 40% and 30% went over 2.5 goals. Both sides have been playing tight matches. In their last 4 meetings Almería won 3, Leganés won 0 and 1 ended level. The most recent, on 5 Apr 2026, finished Almería 2–1 Leganés.

With the bookmaker's margin removed, the market puts both teams to score at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 56%. Kepler's model projects 1.88–0.91 in expected goals, with 1–0 the most likely score, and puts both teams to score at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.