Almería vs Burgos: predictions, H2H and market odds

Almería have won 6, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.5 goals scored and 0.8 conceded (1.31 expected goals for, 1.03 against). Burgos have won 7, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.5 goals scored and 0.7 conceded (1.13 expected goals for, 1.05 against).

Both teams scored in 30% of Almería's recent matches and 40% of Burgos's; 40% and 40% went over 2.5 goals. Both sides have been playing tight matches. In their last 6 meetings Almería won 3, Burgos won 2 and 1 ended level. The most recent, on 9 May 2026, finished Burgos 0–0 Almería.

With the bookmaker's margin removed, the market puts both teams to score at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 51%. Kepler's model projects 1.54–0.97 in expected goals, with 1–0 the most likely score, and puts both teams to score at 52%.