AFC Bournemouth vs Liverpool: predictions, H2H and market odds

AFC Bournemouth have won 3, drawn 6 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.6 goals scored and 1.2 conceded (1.45 expected goals for, 1.22 against). Liverpool have won 3, drawn 5 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.7 goals scored and 1.5 conceded (1.34 expected goals for, 1.52 against).

Both teams scored in 80% of AFC Bournemouth's recent matches and 80% of Liverpool's; 60% and 60% went over 2.5 goals. Both sides have been playing open matches. In their last 8 meetings AFC Bournemouth won 2, Liverpool won 6 and 0 ended level. The most recent, on 24 Jan 2026, finished AFC Bournemouth 3–2 Liverpool.

With the bookmaker's margin removed, the market puts both teams to score at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 63%. Kepler's model projects 1.41–1.72 in expected goals, with 1–1 the most likely score, and puts both teams to score at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.