Method, not tips.
Football strategy, explained with data
How we measure an edge, why bookmaker margin has to come out before you can see one, and what the models actually do. Every figure quoted is reproducible on the track record.
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6 min readSingles vs accumulators: why we recommend single bets
On a day with five signals, four winners is a good day with singles and a losing day with an accumulator. What accumulators do to your odds, your swings and your record.
stakingbankrollaccumulators
7 min readClosing line value: the only metric that matters
Win rate needs hundreds of settled bets to separate skill from luck. Closing line value reads every bet the day it is placed. Here is what good looks like.
CLVmeasurementbankroll
8 min readDe-vigging: recovering the true probability
A bookmaker price is not a probability - it is a probability plus a margin. Removing that margin is the difference between measuring an edge and inventing one.
de-viggingexpected valuemarket