Vitória vs Grêmio: predictions, H2H and market odds

Vitória have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 6 of their last 10 matches, averaging 0.6 goals scored and 1.5 conceded (1.12 expected goals for, 1.46 against). Grêmio have won 3, drawn 2 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.2 goals scored and 1.6 conceded (1.02 expected goals for, 1.28 against).

Both teams scored in 20% of Vitória's recent matches and 70% of Grêmio's; 30% and 60% went over 2.5 goals. In their last 5 meetings Vitória won 0, Grêmio won 3 and 2 ended level. The most recent, on 19 Mar 2026, finished Grêmio 2–0 Vitória.

With the bookmaker's margin removed, the market puts both teams to score at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 45%. Kepler's model projects 1.23–1.11 in expected goals, with 1–1 the most likely score, and puts both teams to score at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.