Vitória Guimarães vs Moreirense: predictions, H2H and market odds

Vitória Guimarães have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 7 of their last 10 matches, averaging 0.7 goals scored and 1.5 conceded (1.05 expected goals for, 1.50 against). Moreirense have won 3, drawn 2 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.1 goals scored and 2.1 conceded (1.13 expected goals for, 1.51 against).

Both teams scored in 30% of Vitória Guimarães's recent matches and 50% of Moreirense's; 30% and 70% went over 2.5 goals. In their last 8 meetings Vitória Guimarães won 5, Moreirense won 2 and 1 ended level. The most recent, on 30 Jan 2026, finished Vitória Guimarães 1–0 Moreirense.

With the bookmaker's margin removed, the market puts both teams to score at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 51%. Kepler's model projects 1.45–0.95 in expected goals, with 1–0 the most likely score, and puts both teams to score at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.