Vila Nova vs Novorizontino: predictions, H2H and market odds

Vila Nova have won 6, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.1 goals scored and 0.6 conceded (1.19 expected goals for, 1.26 against). Novorizontino have won 7, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches, averaging 2.4 goals scored and 0.8 conceded (2.15 expected goals for, 0.98 against).

Both teams scored in 10% of Vila Nova's recent matches and 70% of Novorizontino's; 10% and 70% went over 2.5 goals. In their last 9 meetings Vila Nova won 2, Novorizontino won 4 and 3 ended level. The most recent, on 26 Jun 2026, finished Novorizontino 2–1 Vila Nova.

With the bookmaker's margin removed, the market puts both teams to score at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 39%. Kepler's model projects 1.08–1.12 in expected goals, with 1–1 the most likely score, and puts both teams to score at 50%.