Vila Nova vs Cuiabá: predictions, H2H and market odds

Vila Nova have won 7, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.7 goals scored and 0.6 conceded (1.70 expected goals for, 1.25 against). Cuiabá have won 6, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.6 goals scored and 0.9 conceded (1.16 expected goals for, 1.02 against).

Both teams scored in 10% of Vila Nova's recent matches and 40% of Cuiabá's; 20% and 50% went over 2.5 goals. In their last 3 meetings Vila Nova won 0, Cuiabá won 2 and 1 ended level. The most recent, on 14 Jun 2026, finished Cuiabá 1–0 Vila Nova.

With the bookmaker's margin removed, the market puts both teams to score at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 38%. Kepler's model projects 1.21–0.87 in expected goals, with 1–0 the most likely score, and puts both teams to score at 49%.