Swindon Town vs Crewe Alexandra: predictions, H2H and market odds

Swindon Town have won 3, drawn 2 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.0 goals scored and 1.5 conceded (1.23 expected goals for, 1.46 against). Crewe Alexandra have won 3, drawn 7 and lost 0 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.1 goals scored and 0.7 conceded (1.03 expected goals for, 1.29 against).

Both teams scored in 50% of Swindon Town's recent matches and 60% of Crewe Alexandra's; 60% and 20% went over 2.5 goals. In their last 8 meetings Swindon Town won 1, Crewe Alexandra won 4 and 3 ended level. The most recent, on 21 Feb 2026, finished Swindon Town 1–2 Crewe Alexandra.

With the bookmaker's margin removed, the market puts both teams to score at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 55%. Kepler's model projects 1.49–1.20 in expected goals, with 1–1 the most likely score, and puts both teams to score at 58%.