Stoke City vs Middlesbrough: predictions, H2H and market odds

Stoke City have won 5, drawn 1 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.5 goals scored and 1.5 conceded (1.17 expected goals for, 1.34 against). Middlesbrough have won 5, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.7 goals scored and 1.3 conceded (1.33 expected goals for, 1.16 against).

Both teams scored in 70% of Stoke City's recent matches and 70% of Middlesbrough's; 70% and 60% went over 2.5 goals. Both sides have been playing open matches. In their last 10 meetings Stoke City won 2, Middlesbrough won 4 and 4 ended level. The most recent, on 21 Jan 2026, finished Stoke City 1–2 Middlesbrough.

With the bookmaker's margin removed, the market puts both teams to score at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 54%. Kepler's model projects 1.13–1.38 in expected goals, with 1–1 the most likely score, and puts both teams to score at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.