Sporting CP vs Arouca: predictions, H2H and market odds

Sporting CP have won 7, drawn 3 and lost 0 of their last 10 matches, averaging 2.9 goals scored and 1.0 conceded (2.02 expected goals for, 0.90 against). Arouca have won 5, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.7 goals scored and 1.1 conceded (1.25 expected goals for, 1.32 against).

Both teams scored in 70% of Sporting CP's recent matches and 60% of Arouca's; 80% and 70% went over 2.5 goals. Both sides have been playing open matches. In their last 10 meetings Sporting CP won 7, Arouca won 1 and 2 ended level. The most recent, on 24 Jan 2026, finished Arouca 1–2 Sporting CP.

With the bookmaker's margin removed, the market puts both teams to score at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 68%. Kepler's model projects 3.12–0.77 in expected goals, with 3–0 the most likely score, and puts both teams to score at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 71%.