São Paulo vs Atlético Mineiro: predictions, H2H and market odds

São Paulo have won 1, drawn 3 and lost 6 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.0 goals scored and 1.5 conceded (1.21 expected goals for, 1.23 against). Atlético Mineiro have won 5, drawn 4 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.5 goals scored and 0.8 conceded (1.43 expected goals for, 1.02 against).

Both teams scored in 80% of São Paulo's recent matches and 60% of Atlético Mineiro's; 50% and 50% went over 2.5 goals. In their last 9 meetings São Paulo won 1, Atlético Mineiro won 4 and 4 ended level. The most recent, on 18 Mar 2026, finished Atlético Mineiro 1–0 São Paulo.

With the bookmaker's margin removed, the market puts both teams to score at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 43%. Kepler's model projects 1.27–0.97 in expected goals, with 1–0 the most likely score, and puts both teams to score at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.