Santos vs Flamengo: predictions, H2H and market odds

Santos have won 6, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.8 goals scored and 1.2 conceded (1.37 expected goals for, 1.31 against). Flamengo have won 7, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches, averaging 2.2 goals scored and 0.7 conceded (1.74 expected goals for, 1.04 against).

Both teams scored in 70% of Santos's recent matches and 60% of Flamengo's; 70% and 60% went over 2.5 goals. Both sides have been playing open matches. In their last 7 meetings Santos won 2, Flamengo won 5 and 0 ended level. The most recent, on 5 Apr 2026, finished Flamengo 3–1 Santos.

With the bookmaker's margin removed, the market puts both teams to score at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 59%. Kepler's model projects 1.09–1.70 in expected goals, with 1–1 the most likely score, and puts both teams to score at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.