Santos vs Cruzeiro: predictions, H2H and market odds

Santos have won 4, drawn 2 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.6 goals scored and 1.6 conceded (1.33 expected goals for, 1.35 against). Cruzeiro have won 7, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.7 goals scored and 1.1 conceded (1.33 expected goals for, 1.40 against).

Both teams scored in 60% of Santos's recent matches and 80% of Cruzeiro's; 70% and 70% went over 2.5 goals. Both sides have been playing open matches. In their last 5 meetings Santos won 2, Cruzeiro won 2 and 1 ended level. The most recent, on 22 Mar 2026, finished Cruzeiro 0–0 Santos.

With the bookmaker's margin removed, the market puts both teams to score at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 49%. Kepler's model projects 1.29–1.24 in expected goals, with 1–1 the most likely score, and puts both teams to score at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.