Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano: predictions, H2H and market odds

Real Madrid have won 7, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, averaging 2.0 goals scored and 0.8 conceded (2.16 expected goals for, 1.13 against). Rayo Vallecano have won 4, drawn 4 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.8 goals scored and 1.6 conceded (1.69 expected goals for, 1.57 against).

Both teams scored in 40% of Real Madrid's recent matches and 80% of Rayo Vallecano's; 40% and 50% went over 2.5 goals. In their last 10 meetings Real Madrid won 5, Rayo Vallecano won 1 and 4 ended level. The most recent, on 1 Feb 2026, finished Real Madrid 2–1 Rayo Vallecano.

With the bookmaker's margin removed, the market puts both teams to score at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 72%. Kepler's model projects 2.24–0.65 in expected goals, with 2–0 the most likely score, and puts both teams to score at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.