RB Leipzig vs Hamburger SV: predictions, H2H and market odds

RB Leipzig have won 7, drawn 0 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, averaging 2.2 goals scored and 1.5 conceded (2.43 expected goals for, 1.46 against). Hamburger SV have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 6 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.1 goals scored and 2.4 conceded (1.21 expected goals for, 2.08 against).

Both teams scored in 70% of RB Leipzig's recent matches and 70% of Hamburger SV's; 90% and 70% went over 2.5 goals. Both sides have been playing open matches. In their last 2 meetings RB Leipzig won 2, Hamburger SV won 0 and 0 ended level. The most recent, on 1 Mar 2026, finished Hamburger SV 1–2 RB Leipzig.

With the bookmaker's margin removed, the market puts both teams to score at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 72%. Kepler's model projects 2.20–0.88 in expected goals, with 2–0 the most likely score, and puts both teams to score at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 70%.